College sector overview report 2023 to 2024: Analysis of learner outcome data 2022-23
SFC produce college KPIs annually for the previous academic year for credit rated programmes. In addition, SFC produce an accompanying overview report which analyses data patterns and trends over several years – five years for full-time and three years for part-time programmes. The most recent reports can be found on the Scottish Funding Council website.
The purpose of this data and associated indicators is to inform stakeholders about the performance of the sector in relation to learner outcomes. The reported KPIs support the evaluation of the performance of learners by level of programme and hours of study. KPIs can be monitored and analysed to compare the performance of groups of learners of specific interest, for example those with protected characteristics or care-experienced learners, thereby supporting wider college sector improvement.
During AY 2022-23 Scotland’s colleges recruited approximately 178,000 learners on SFC credit rated programmes. Recruitment to FE full-time and HE full-time programmes have experienced a steady decline over the past six years with reductions of 13.5% and 14% respectively since AY 2017-18.
Part-time FE programmes have experienced increased rates in learner recruitment over the past three years of 10.4% since AY 2020-21. Part-time HE programmes have experienced a slight decrease of 1.6%.
Ten full-time FE programme subject areas experienced a decline in learner recruitment from the previous academic year. Science programmes and performing arts saw a decline of 21% and 27% respectively. Eight programmes experienced an increase, with hospitality and tourism, and engineering increasing by 14% and 9.8% respectively.
Across full-time HE programmes 16 experienced a decline in learner recruitment from the previous academic year. Nautical, hospitality and tourism and business, management and administration programmes experienced significant decline.
Recruitment of care experienced learners has increased by 6% from the previous academic year and has seen a significant rise of 103% from AY 2018-19. This exponential rise coupled with the low success rates for this cohort of learners highlights the need for colleges to further consider this within their monitoring activities for key groups of learners.
Recruitment of learners who declared having a disability increased by 6% from the previous academic year. Recruitment of male learners was 4.8% higher than that of their female counterparts. Recruitment of learners from an ethnic background increased by 1.0% from the previous academic year.
Overall rates of learner successful completion have increased, particularly for full-time programmes. Around 68.1% of learners on all full-time programmes left college having achieved their qualification. The remaining 31.9% of learners left college with no or only partial attainment. Success rates for part-time FE and HE have also increased from the previous year, however the increments are marginal.
The overall rate of successful learner completion for full-time FE programmes has increased by 4.6% from the previous year to 63.6% and is 1.6 % lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Overall rates of learner withdrawal were 4% lower than the previous year and 0.6% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Overall rates of completion with partial success for full-time FE learners were 0.6% lower than the previous year and 1% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Overall rates of successful completion for part-time FE learners were 1% higher than the previous year but 2.4% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Male learners have a higher rate of successful completion for FE programmes when compared to their female counterparts with 71.6% for males and 64.9% for females.
The overall rate of successful completion for learners on full-time HE programmes has increased to 65.5% This is 3% higher than the previous year, however 4.3% lower than pre-pandemic levels.
The success rate for part-time HE learners remained steady at 78.6%.
The overall rate of full-time HE learner withdrawal decreased 3% from the previous year, from 23.6% to 20.6%.
The rate for full-time HE learners completing their programmes with partial success increased by 0.1% to 14%. For part-time HE learners, the rate of partial success was 0.3% higher than the previous year.
The gap in attainment between key learner groups and the rest of the learner population reported in 2021-22 has decreased in 2022-23.
- Care experienced learners
While the rate of successful completion for care-experienced learners has risen by 2.9%, the gap to overall FE full-time and HE-full time learner success rates is 7.9% 10.1% respectively. Rates of learner completion with partial success have remained steady. The number of care-experienced learners who withdrew from their programme has decreased by 2% from the previous year.
- Learners from disadvantaged backgrounds
The rate of successful completion for learners from the 10% most deprived postcode areas has increased by 2.5% from the previous year and the gap from the rest of the learner population has decreased by 1%. The rate of learner withdrawal has decreased by 3.6% from the previous year. The gap in attainment between the most deprived and the rest of the learner population varies between colleges.
- Ethnic minorities
The successful completion rate for learners from ethnic minorities has fallen by 1.5% from the previous year, the lowest success rate over the reporting period. The rate of completion with partial success for this group has increased by 1.2% and the rate of learner withdrawal increased slightly from the previous year.
- Learners with a disability
Successful completion rates for learners declaring a disability have fallen by 0.5%. Learner partial success and withdrawal rates have decreased respectively by 0.2% and 2.3 % on the previous year.
Successful completion rates for learners in all age groups have increased over the past year. The biggest increase in successful outcomes was for learners aged 18-20, having increased by 4.5 % to 62.4% which is 1.2 % below the national average. Successful outcomes for learners aged 18-20 have improved by 3.4 % and is 4.7 % lower than those aged 21-24 and over. Younger learners are more likely to withdraw from their programme or complete with partial success. Rates of partial success and withdrawal have both decreased on the previous year for all age groups except for those aged 41 and over.
There remains significant variation in learner retention and attainment rates between colleges. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath has continued to impact these differences for AY 2022-23.
18 colleges have overall FE full-time learner attainment rates that are higher or significantly higher than the sector average. Nine colleges have overall full-time learner attainment rates that are higher or significantly higher than the sector average for HE. Eight colleges are below the sector average full-time FE and seven colleges are below the sector average for full-time HE learner attainment.
Factors influencing learner outcomes include social, economic and cultural factors. The recent industrial action in colleges has further impacted learners and has contributed to declining outcomes in some colleges. This is typically demonstrated through falling rates of learner retention.
Some subject areas have lower overall rates of learner successful completion than others, and this trend has persisted over time. In full-time FE, science; social sciences; computing and ICT; hospitality and tourism; business, management and administration; performing arts; hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies; care; education and training; and sport and leisure all have low rates of learner success. Social subjects; science; and hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies saw the highest levels of learner withdrawal. Rates of attainment for construction; engineering, languages and ESOL were higher.
Overall, successful completion rates for full-time HE programmes in performing arts; art and design; media; hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies; and engineering is high. Business, management and administration; social subjects; sport and leisure; computing and ICT; and hospitality and tourism have low learner success rates. Hospitality and tourism; social subjects; and care programmes saw the highest rates of learner withdrawal.
