College sector overview report 2023 to 2024: Summary of findings

Progress made by colleges on achievement of improvement targets

Twenty-two colleges made satisfactory progress towards addressing aspects for improvement, and three colleges did not make sufficient progress. In nine colleges, HM Inspectors identified main points requiring action to improve the quality of provision and/or outcomes for learners.

Despite efforts to enhance learning experiences and improve learner outcomes in a number of colleges, overall attainment rates in full-time FE and HE programmes, remain lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Alongside the declining full-time learner population, rates of full-time learner successful completion have also declined. Fewer learners are enrolling on full-time programmes, and fewer of those are completing successfully. In addition, there remains significant variability in rates of learner successful completion between individual colleges and subject areas. Some colleges and subject areas have persistently low attainment rates over many years. This is impacting on overall sector learner attainment.

In the three years prior to the pandemic, the completion rates of full-time FE learners were around 66%. In AY 2022/23 this figure declined to 63.6%, which was an improvement on rates of attainment during the pandemic. However, overall, rates of learner successful completion have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Rates of attainment for full-time HE learners show a similar pattern. Prior to the pandemic, overall attainment rates were 69.8%. In AY 2022/23 the overall rate of successful learner completion was 65.5%.

Full-time FE attainment rates vary across the sector, with some colleges maintaining consistently strong outcomes or showing significant improvement, while others face ongoing challenges. A number of colleges have demonstrated progress in exceeding the sector average, reflecting targeted efforts to enhance performance.

Similarly, part-time FE learner attainment shows notable variation across the sector, with some colleges consistently achieving above the sector average and others with below the sector average for a few years. A number of colleges have demonstrated steady performance over the years, while others have seen fluctuations, including recent declines or improvements.

Full-time HE learner attainment also shows considerable variation across colleges. While some have consistently achieved above the sector average, others have faced challenges in improving outcomes over several years. Encouragingly, several colleges have shown recent improvements or maintained steady performance near the sector average over time.

Despite some colleges facing similar external challenges, they show notable disparities in part-time learner attainment, reflecting differences in how these challenges are addressed. While some colleges have achieved strong outcomes, others continue to face barriers to improving attainment.

In colleges with low full-time learner attainment rates, specific subject areas are underperforming, and this significantly lowers overall college attainment rates.

This highlights the ongoing challenge for colleges in supporting full-time FE and HE learners to successfully complete their programmes. Whilst a combination of external factors, such as those previously mentioned, have contributed to declining learner outcomes in many colleges, low rates of successful completion were already evident in a number of colleges. Average rates of full-time learner attainment for FE programmes have not improved significantly over the last ten years. In several colleges, rates of learner attainment remain too low and efforts to secure improvement have not yet brought about the desired impact.

Part-time learners are performing better than their full-time counterparts. In the two years preceding the pandemic, rates of part-time FE successful learner completion were 78%. During the pandemic rates declined slightly. In AY 2022/23 the overall rate of part-time FE learner successful completion was 77.3%, only slightly behind pre-pandemic figures.

During the pandemic the success rates of part-time HE learners, increased, and as for AY 2022-23 these rates are now at pre-pandemic levels reaching 78.60%.

Overall rates of part-time learner successful completion have shown resilience and have not been significantly impacted by external challenges. Nationally, at FE level, there are over double the number of part-time learners than full-time learners, reflecting the composition of the learner population.

The overall number of learners in colleges is falling. In AY 2007/08, there were around 380,000 learners in Scotland's colleges on SFC credit rated programmes. By AY 2014/15, post regionalisation, learner numbers had fallen to 239,000. In AY 2022/23, the figure had fallen further to 179,000 learners. The sector faces an ongoing challenge in providing an appropriate curriculum to meet the needs of this changing learner population and of the wider economy. Trends including a reducing 16 to 24-year-old population; the lowest birth rate in Scotland since consistent records began; and competition from employers and universities over recruitment targets are set to continue. This is an important consideration when planning for viable future provision across the sector.