National Summary Report April to June 2024: Stretch aims progress of the annual trajectories for 2023-24

Primary 1, 4 and 7 literacy combined

This stretch aim is based on children achieving the expected national level for their stage in all three literacy organisers. In the National Summary Report for the same period last year, the majority of local authorities indicated that it was likely that this stretch aim for overall attainment would be met. However, when the data was published it had been met by a minority. Information for this reporting period suggesting that most local authorities predict that the trajectory stretch aims will be met, should be viewed with caution.

Of the local authorities who set a trajectory stretch aim using a comparison between Q1 and 5, more than half predicted that their identified stretch aim will be achieved and that the poverty-related attainment gap will narrow. This would be an improvement when compared to the local authority predictions as reported in National Summary Report 3, which accurately forecast that a third would narrow the gap when the data was published in December 2023.

Examples for the Broad General Education (Literacy)

1. Early indications from internal data show progress in literacy across P1/4/7. The local authority expects to be on track to achieve the overall stretch aim. Q1 attainment has improved.
2. Initial data indicates that there are improvements in literacy levels of attainment, particularly in Quintile 1. Schools are continuing to support children and maximise progress before the end of session when data will be finalised.
3. Current predictions indicate the authority is unlikely to achieve the stretch aim trajectory for P1/4/7 literacy combined. Current predictions suggest P4 stretch aim trajectories will be met and those for P1 and P7 will be within 1%. Education managers, quality improvement officers, school leaders and school staff are currently undertaking an analysis of current predictions to ensure accuracy.
4. While the local authority has not made gains in overall attainment in literacy since last year, it has seen the number of pupils on track in literacy in Q1 increase by 3.3pp.
5. The local authority is confident it is on track to meet the trajectory. This is as a result of recent predicted data gathered across the primary sector and further follow up individual conversations at school level between senior managers and headteachers. 
6. Progress in literacy has been approximated based on tracking data for each of the literacy components. Current data suggests the local authority is comfortably on track to achieve the ‘attainment for all’ trajectory and is on track to surpass the PRAG trajectory.

P1, 4 and 7 numeracy combined

All local authorities set a stretch aim for the percentage of young people expected to achieve the expected national level in numeracy. The majority of local authorities predict that their trajectory for overall attainment will be met. Predictions in National Summary 3 accurately reported that a third would achieve their stretch aim.

Of the local authorities who set a trajectory stretch aim using a comparison between Q1 and 5, just over half predicted that their trajectory will be achieved and that the poverty-related attainment gap will narrow. This would be an improvement when compared to the local authority predictions as reported in the National Summary Report 3, which accurately forecast that a third would narrow the gap when the data was published in December 2023.

Examples for the Broad General Education (Numeracy)

1. There has been sustained improvement in numeracy attainment for all and a decrease in the poverty-related attainment gap. 
2. Tracking uplifts indicate that the LA is currently on track to meet its identified trajectory for 2024.
3. Indications are that overall attainment in numeracy will decrease by 0.7pp. There is likely to be an increase in P7 attainment.
4. Figures for Q1 are very strong resulting in good impact on closing the poverty-related attainment gap.
5. Current data suggests the local authority is comfortably on track to achieve the ‘attainment for all’ trajectory and is on track to surpass the poverty-related attainment gap trajectory.
6. It is anticipated that the local authority will be within 1.0pp of the target.

One or more passes at SCQF Level 5

All local authorities set stretch aims for the percentage of young people expected to achieve one or more awards. At the time of writing the reports, a third of local authorities predicted that they would meet their trajectories. Less than a third of predicted that the gap would be narrowed.

The majority were unable to provide robust, quantitative information on the progress being made towards this trajectory at this time. Based on leavers’ data, which is not published until February 2025, most cited that the requisite information was not available.

Where local authorities are able to provide predictions for these trajectories, it is recommended that the processes they use be shared more widely.

Examples for the Senior Phase, SCQF Level 5

1. The ADES collaborative improvement report of April 2024 provided a catalyst for change. Changes will include more accountability by secondary headteachers to share data transparently and receive challenge to improve outcomes.
2. Without knowing the number of leavers in S4 and S5, it remains a challenge to identify if targets will be met. Cohort tracking systems have improved and schools are making progress to better identify potential leavers from S4 and S5.
3. It is anticipated that improvements in Level 5 literacy and numeracy by the end of stage will feed into improved Level 5 attainment for school leavers. This is partly dependent on staying on rates next year, compared with this year's rates. Evidence suggests the trajectory for this stretch aim is likely to be on track.
4. Trajectory windows for stretch aims are on track to be met for L5. This is dependent on whether the information of those pupils intending to leave actually happens, as well as any exam results. 
5. As a result of recent robust attainment dialogue between schools and the senior managers, the authority is confident they will meet the trajectories. 
6. The school improvement framework is being revised with an enhanced focus on Senior Phase attainment. Consideration is being given to creation of a tracking and monitoring dashboard to support analysis of data throughout the year. An increased focus on levelling up school/college partnership courses is resulting in a broader curricular offer and higher numbers of learners leaving school with qualifications. 
7. Cohort tracking systems have improved and schools are making progress to better identify potential leavers from S4 and S5.
8. Schools report an expectation to be able to achieve the expected stretch aim in both classifications. A small reduction is expected in the PRAG overall. 

One or more passes at SCQF Level 6

All local authorities set stretch aims for the percentage of young people expected to achieve one or more awards. At the time of writing the reports, a quarter of local authorities predicted that they would meet their trajectories. More than a third predicted  the gap would be narrowed.

The majority were unable to provide robust, quantitative information on the progress being made towards this trajectory. Based on leavers’ data, which is not published until February 2025, most cited that the requisite information was not available.

Where local authorities are able to provide predictions for these trajectories, it is recommended that the processes they use be shared more widely.

Examples for the Senior Phase, SCQF Level 6

1. Unable to determine at this stage but indications are that the local authority are likely to meet these aims.
2. Figures were not available at the time this report was written however current trends would suggest that figures are slightly behind trajectories.

The majority of local authorities used the Interim Participation Snapshot for 16-19-year-olds on the Skills Development Scotland (SDS) website to report on the progress of this trajectory.

In the National Summary Report for April to June 2023, most local authorities anticipated that they would not meet this stretch aim. However, in the most recent National Summary Report December 2023 to March 2024, most reported they had in fact met this aim.

In reporting for this period April-June 2024, more than half of local authorities predict that the APM will be met. Just under half predict that the poverty-related gap will be narrowed in this measure.

Examples for the Annual Participation Measure

1. The local authority’s latest interim snapshot for overall participation by SDS projects that the trajectory aim for overall participation will fall short by 0.9%. The same snapshot also indicates that the PRAG figure is 4pp short of the stretch aim trajectory.
2. The percentage of school leavers entering a positive destination has improved over the past three years. 95.3% of school leavers after the 2022-23 school year entered a positive destination, compared with 95.9% nationally. This was 0.1pp below the stretch aim for that year. This is the first time that the proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination has exceeded 95% by this measure.
3. The interim snapshot in May shows it is unlikely that the stretch aim will be met, however, the PRAG has decreased by 0.4pp since the interim snapshot in December. 
4. Based on the interim participation measures from May 2024, the local authority is confident it is on track to surpass the 2023-24 stretch aim. If progress continues at this pace, it is expected that the 2025-26 stretch aim will be met.
5. The latest interim snapshot is slightly under the current projected trajectory by 1.2pp. Although with the current work undertaken in partnership with the local employability partnership, SDS and the Ayrshire College, the authority is confident it will meet the trajectory target of 93.5%.
6. The local authority has made strong progress and has met the annual trajectory target for overall improvement and narrowing the PRAG.

Attendance

Attendance is recognised as a considerable challenge across the country. The Programme for Government has prioritised this as an area of focus. Attainment advisors are participating in collaborative work across all 32 local authorities to build capacity and support improvement. Improving attendance resources were recently published on Education Scotland’s website.

All local authorities set at least one attendance trajectory as a measure for health and wellbeing. Just over a third of local authorities set an overall aim for attendance and, of those, half predicted that it would be met.

The majority of local authorities set trajectories for attendance in primary schools and in secondary schools. Predictions for primary attendance were more positive than secondary with more than half reporting that these would be met when compared with less than a quarter in the secondary measure.

The poverty-related gap is predicted to narrow for both overall and primary attendance aims.

A minority of local authorities have also set a health and wellbeing stretch aim related to inclusion and or exclusion for both primary and secondary. Of these, the majority predict the trajectory will not be met.

Examples for attendance

1. Attendance in primary, secondary and special schools is above national average. Effective risk assessments have helped to increase pupil levels of attendance in all schools. Improved analysis of local data has enabled schools to better understand trends and employ interventions to support increased attendance of targeted groups. There is still a need to improve attendance at SIMD 1 and work is being undertaken in one associated school group to look at targeting attendance as part of a wider family support model ensuring early intervention to avoid families getting into poor attendance habits in primary school.
2. Attendance in primaries is improving and remains above the national average. Attendance in secondary schools is currently below the national average.
3. The poverty-related attainment gap is measured using learners who are registered for Free School Meals. Despite not meeting all stretch aims, there has been improvement in attendance levels in primary since 2023 and a reduction of the poverty-related attainment gap in both primaries and secondaries. 
4. The new attendance framework is currently being developed and will be implemented next session to support challenges with attendance. SEF is being directed towards nurture teachers to develop nurture approaches within schools and principal teachers for nurture to establish nurture groups with parents, linked to improving attendance.
5. A comprehensive policy framework was developed to enhance relationships, behaviour, and learning across schools.Additionally, a self-evaluation framework is now in place to help schools improve attendance, tailored to their specific contextual needs. An attendance and engagement cluster project, supported by educational psychologists, is also underway to further address this. 
6. Weekly tracking is taking place to monitor attendance across all settings. The local authority is confident that it is currently on track to meet this annual trajectory. If progress continues at this pace, it is expected that the 2025-26 stretch aim will be met.
7. Improving attendance remains a priority. Targeted work continues through the attendance workstream to further universal support to ensure improved attendance for all, including updated processes and guidance. The local authority is unlikely to meet this trajectory target of 89-91%. 
8. The trajectory for secondary attendance was narrowly missed by 0.16pp. Disappointingly, the number of pupils with less than 70% attendance has increased.
9. Indications are that the overall trajectory will not be reached. However, primary attendance is likely to improve while secondary attendance will remain the same as 2022-23. Attendance in the two special schools is projected to improve. The attendance aims for Q1 and Q5 are both on track to be met. However, Q5 attendance is improving at a greater level than Q1 so the poverty-related aim is unlikely to be met.

Almost all local authorities have trajectories for plus stretch aims. These reflect local contexts and priorities and the number of aims varies considerably. Of the total trajectories set and reported, local authorities predict that half of these will be met. The gap is predicted to narrow in the majority of these.

Where appropriate, a small number of local authorities have used alternative measures to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) to accurately capture poverty-related gaps within their stretch aims. This is reflected within some plus aims which, for example, focus on improving outcomes for children in receipt of free school meals.